Indonesia's Leadership Crisis: Can Prabowo Overcome Protests and Food Poisoning Scandals?

Indonesia is at a crossroads in its economic journey under President Prabowo Subianto. His first year has been marred by a growing divide between populist promises and harsh economic realities. Amidst rising living costs and issues of corruption and inequality, frustrated youth took to the streets in August protesting these conditions, leading to tragic outcomes with 10 fatalities. The government’s reversal of perks for politicians was an attempt to quell public anger, showcasing the dire state of public discontent.

One of Prabowo’s flagship initiatives, a free school meals program, has turned disastrous, with over 9,000 children falling ill due to food poisoning linked to this initiative. Originally designed to combat child malnutrition and foster educational growth, the program has instead raised significant questions about its implementation and the management of public resources. Critics argue that despite the $28 billion budget, the lack of safe food delivery mechanisms across Indonesia’s thousands of islands undermines the program’s effectiveness.

The Indonesian economy is feeling the pressure of global demand slowdowns and increased competition from neighboring nations like Vietnam and Malaysia. While annual growth has hovered around 5%, experts warn that maintaining even this modest rate amidst global economic changes will require better handling of public finances and foreign investment.

Prabowo has ambitious aspirations for growth, aiming for a target of 8% by 2029, but current economic indicators suggest weakening activity, including falling car sales and shrinking foreign investments. The removal of the previously esteemed finance minister, Sri Mulyani Indrawati, and the rise of a less-known successor, adds to investor uncertainty, complicating the government’s narrative of improving economic conditions.

With the backdrop of Trump’s trade wars and rising tariffs affecting Indonesia’s exports, Prabowo’s administration seeks new markets, including a recent EU trade agreement. Nevertheless, structural issues remain, particularly in creating sufficient job opportunities within sectors that accommodate a booming population but lack extensive industrial employment.

As Indonesia grapples with these challenges, the question remains: will Prabowo’s strategies effectively revitalize the economy or further alienate a disenchanted populace?