Is Scotland's Meat Industry Facing a Trade Tsunami?

Scotland’s meat industry is voicing growing concerns over the impacts of imported meat due to recent trade agreements with countries such as New Zealand, Australia, and Brazil. Quality Meat Scotland (QMS) warns that this may destabilize the Scottish food sector, particularly in the context of the Royal Highland Show at Ingliston, Edinburgh. While farming unions believe these trade deals could open new markets for local producers, QMS emphasizes the need for a comprehensive view of the cumulative effects of various trade agreements.

A major point of contention arises from the current beef shortage in the US tied to low livestock numbers from droughts. This presents a potential opportunity for Scottish exports; however, it also necessitates a revival of decreasing Scottish cattle numbers to meet growing demand.

Australia’s trade agreement with the UK, enacted in May 2023, was criticized for allegedly compromising local markets. Since Brexit, approximately 70 countries have engaged in trade agreements with the UK. Recent discussions highlight that the EU remains a critical export market, with the hope that smooth access will be restored through new agreements.

QMS modeling forecasts that by 2030, Scotland would need an additional 79,000 cows to offset imports with home-grown beef, an increase requiring farmers to manage their herds adeptly. Particularly optimistic is the recent trade deal with India, expected to significantly boost whisky exports and create thousands of jobs, which will positively impact arable farmers in Scotland.

There’s cautious optimism about the EU-UK trade and cooperation agreement which may reduce bureaucratic hurdles for farmers, allowing better access to the lucrative European market. However, NFU Scotland raises other concerns about the UK’s supply alignment with EU standards, particularly regarding the ban on hormone-treated US beef. As both farmers and policymakers navigate these complex trade landscapes, the focus remains on maintaining quality standards while pursuing new opportunities.