A Game Changer or Just Hot Air? The UK and France's Migrant Deal on the Line

Senior government officials in the UK are optimistic about finalizing a significant agreement with Emmanuel Macron to address the ongoing migrant crisis across the English Channel. This proposed deal would enable France to take back some of the migrants who cross to the UK on small boats, while concurrently allowing the UK to accept asylum claimants from France who are believed to have legitimate reasons to relocate to the UK.

The arrangement, described as a “one-in-one out” deal, may initially facilitate the return of approximately 50 migrants each week, although the scope is expected to expand over time. A crucial aspect of this agreement involves creating a ”deterrent”, a term emphasized by both UK Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer and Macron, aimed at disrupting the smuggling networks responsible for these dangerous crossings.

However, critics—including members of the Conservative Party—are skeptical, arguing that the numbers involved represent only about 5% of the current migrant flow, rendering the scheme ineffective as a deterrent. They draw parallels to a previously proposed, yet unsuccessful, plan to deport migrants to Rwanda, which was abandoned following the recent change in government.

This agreement signifies a notable turn in Franco-British diplomacy, indicating France’s willingness to accept returnees, but the ultimate measure of success remains to be seen. The critical question is whether this deal will lead to a decrease in the number of crossings.

As critics note, unless there is a significant drop in numbers attempting the journey, this deal may be perceived as a failure, raising the stakes for both governments involved. The outcome of this diplomatic effort will be closely monitored in the coming months and years, with the emphasis on whether it can be scaled up to produce tangible results.