**Is Eluned Morgan's Leadership Enough to Reverse Welsh Labour's Decline?**

Eluned Morgan, Wales’ first female First Minister, is at the helm amid political turbulence. In less than a year, her leadership is being challenged as opinion polls indicate a shaky support for Welsh Labour, particularly with Plaid Cymru and Reform UK gaining ground. With the next Senedd elections approaching, Morgan emphasizes her commitment to addressing the long NHS waiting lists, recognizing the urgency of public patience running thin. She references financial support from Westminster as a key factor in improving healthcare services, stating, “We are staring to deliver…because we’ve had that extra money.”

BBC Wales investigated sentiment in Morgan’s home area of St Davids, Pembrokeshire, revealing mixed reactions. Supporters, like former Labour councillor Vic Dennis, praise her understanding of local issues, while critics, including Pete Baird from Reform UK, express dissatisfaction with Labour’s 26-year governance and the deteriorating NHS. The rise of Reform UK threatens to siphon off traditional Labour votes, compounded by a significant voter shift towards Plaid Cymru. Polling expert Jac Larner notes the larger segment of voters switching between Labour and Plaid, a trend that complicates predictions for the upcoming elections.

With an increase in Senedd members from 60 to 96 under a partly-proportional system, Labour’s position could face further jeopardy, raising concerns over Morgan’s potential reelection. Despite these challenges, she remains steadfast, promising a vigorous campaign while asserting that the party can effectively engage with the UK government on critical issues. Morgan’s previous bid for leadership in 2018 placed her third, but her ascent was largely due to a lack of appetite for competition within Labour, resulting in her unprecedented role as First Minister. As the political landscape shifts, retaining her position presents the most significant challenge to Welsh Labour since devolution began.