Reform's Historic Local Election Win: More Than a Protest Vote

In the recent local council elections, the Reform Party achieved significant success, winning the most votes, the majority of council seats, and overall control of numerous councils. Despite securing only 31% of the overall votes across the 23 councils, their performance outstripped the Conservatives at 23%, Liberal Democrats at 17%, and Labour at 14%. Notably, Reform’s tally of 677 council seats (41% of contested seats) indicated their ability to strategically cluster votes under the first-past-the-post electoral system, leading to control of 10 councils, something their predecessor UKIP never accomplished.

The data reveals that Reform performed exceptionally well in councils where there’s a strong Brexit sentiment. For instance, in wards that voted Leave in the 2016 EU referendum, they garnered an average of 45% of the vote, while only achieving 19% in Remain-leaning wards. This illustrates that Brexit remains a pivotal issue influencing voters, and Reform’s appeal is primarily among those who view the 2016 decision positively.

Demographic analysis shows that Reform attracts more support in working-class areas, securing 39% of the vote in such wards compared to 19% in middle-class areas. The party’s highest vote share of 65.1% was recorded in Thornley & Wheatley Hill, a former coal mining area, which underscores the party’s appeal to what has been described as ’left-behind’ Britain—regions that feel neglected by globalization and educational expansion.

Moreover, immigration policies resonate with Reform’s voter base, although they tend to struggle in areas with higher diversity, averaging 22% support where a significant portion of the population identifies as non-white.

Despite their growth, neither the Conservatives nor Labour can easily rebound without appealing to the disenchanted voters who found Reform attractive. Interestingly, Reform’s average share of the vote in traditionally Labour seats was 32%, revealing a significant threat to both the main parties. This pattern persisted, underscoring that Reform’s success was not merely a protest vote but a substantial shift in political allegiance born from the ongoing dissatisfaction with current governance. As political dynamics continue to evolve, understanding the roots of Reform’s support will be crucial for both the Conservatives and Labour in reclaiming lost ground.