Scotland on the Brink: Could Reform UK Shake Up the Political Landscape?
The political scene in Scotland is buzzing with speculation about the rising influence of Reform UK, especially following their impactful results in recent local elections in England.
Historically, there was a tendency to dismiss Reform UK’s potential in Scotland, likening them to past parties like UKIP and the Brexit Party, which were predominantly seen as English entities. However, the numbers now suggest that their appeal in Scotland is legitimate:
- One million Scots voted to Leave in the 2016 EU referendum.
In the 2019 European Parliament elections, the Brexit Party secured notable results, finishing second.
Reform UK garnered 7% of the overall vote in the last general election—marking a significant achievement for a fledgling party.
Reform UK has been strategically building its infrastructure across Scotland and has stood candidates in every parliamentary constituency, which showcases their commitment. This is a feat that even more established parties, like the Greens, have not attempted. In recent by-elections, Reform has managed to achieve over a dozen third-place finishes and has seen significant voter support outside traditional Conservative areas. Their most remarkable results include:
- 24% of the vote in Glasgow
23% in Stirling
19% in two seats in West Lothian
An average of over 12% of the votes across nearly 30 local by-elections.
As Scots prepare for the upcoming Holyrood elections, the environment seems conducive for a party like Reform UK to gain traction. The Scottish National Party (SNP), led by John Swinney, is under pressure after nearly 19 years in power and is attempting a renewal. Meanwhile, the Conservatives and Labour are also struggling for a foothold. Swinney’s efforts to form a coalition against Reform underscore the perceived threat they pose—even before they have secured any seats.
However, the major questions for Reform UK revolve around maintaining momentum and establishing a clear policy platform. The party must transition from a message of disruption to concrete policies that resonate with voters—especially concerning critical issues like the NHS. Meanwhile, Labour has already begun critiquing Reform UK’s stance, particularly concerning healthcare—suggesting that the party’s vague messaging may soon be put to the test as more representatives enter the political fray.
The next year promises to be tumultuous as the buildup to the Scottish and Welsh parliamentary elections begins, and all eyes will be watching to see if Reform can keep its bandwagon rolling amid increasing scrutiny.