The Hidden Crisis: Are Migrants Really Leaving the UK?

Concerns about the monitoring of migrant exits from the UK have been raised anew by Labour MP Clive Betts, highlighting the government’s failure to effectively track whether individuals leave the country once their visas expire. Currently, the UK does not uniquely record every individual exiting through its borders, opting instead to match passenger data from flights, sea, and rail with visa records. This reliance on correlational data has sparked fears that many could be overstaying, contributing to the illegal workforce known as the black economy.

After hitting a staggering net migration figure of 906,000 in June 2023, the numbers have recently seen a decrease to 728,000 by June 2024. However, the Office of National Statistics (ONS) has acknowledged the inaccuracy of these numbers, describing them as experimental statistics that may underrepresent EU migrants.

New immigration rules implemented by former Prime Minister Rishi Sunak have raised the minimum salary requirement for visa applicants to £38,700, marking a nearly 50% increase from the previous £26,200 threshold. These changes have been suggested as contributing factors to the reduction in migration numbers, although exceptions exist for critical sectors such as health care and education.

During a session of the Public Accounts Committee, Marc Owen, director of visa status, noted that the government does not track every individual in the UK, stating that knowledge of exit is primarily obtained through matching airline data with visa records. They depend heavily on employers to conduct visa checks and rely on enforcement teams to address visa overstays.

The Home Office acknowledges that overstaying is a significant issue that is being actively addressed, in collaboration with HMRC and local councils. Permanent Secretary Dame Antonia Romeo confirmed that although the situation is complex, efforts are underway to modernize border security and enhance digital checks.

Betts criticized the current system as symptomatic of a broader failure in border management, escalating the risk of undocumented migrants integrating into the economy. He emphasized the urgent need for the Home Office to strengthen its visa check system as part of the imminent immigration reform plan.

The government’s immigration white paper, detailing comprehensive reforms, is set to be published in late May. Home Office representatives have indicated that this plan for change aims to restore order and enhance the effectiveness of the current, beleaguered immigration system.