Unpacking the Future: Will UK Defence Spending Really Hit 3% of GDP by 2034?

In a recent statement, Defence Secretary John Healey expressed strong confidence that UK defence spending will reach 3% of GDP by 2034, at the very least. This assertion aligns with Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer’s earlier announcement to increase defence spending to 2.5% by April 2027, aiming for the ambitious 3% target contingent on economic conditions.

The forthcoming strategic defence review is expected to detail the UK’s military and security spending priorities in a rapidly evolving global landscape, addressing changing threats. According to Healey, the review assumes that the trajectory of defence spending will consistently progress towards the 3% goal, with the possibility of accelerating this timeline if necessary.

The review is anticipated to recommend the integration of digital experts with military units to enhance troop protection against drone threats and manage the future deployment of unmanned weapons systems. Healey emphasized that the target allows for long-term planning and the ability to effectively manage pressures within the defence sector.

In a significant shift in funding, over £1 billion is slated for development of technology aimed at expediting battlefield decision-making. As NATO heads prepare for a meeting in The Hague, there is growing pressure for allies to increase their defence expenditures, with suggestions for a collective 5% target discussed among member nations.

However, to fund this increase, the UK government plans to decrease its overseas aid from 0.5% to 0.3% of gross national income, a decision that has sparked controversy and was met with the resignation of International Development Minister Anneliese Dodds. She criticized the cuts for potentially worsening humanitarian crises and harming the UK’s global reputation.