Will the Green Wave Hit Wales? Anticipating a Groundbreaking Change in the Senedd

The Green Party is poised to make history in Wales by winning its first-ever seat in the Senedd during the upcoming elections in May next year. Party leader Anthony Slaughter expressed confidence in this potential ”historic breakthrough” at the Green Party’s Welsh conference in Cardiff. Recent membership increases have been significant, reportedly trebling since Zack Polanski became the leader of the Green Party of England and Wales, creating a favorable momentum.

The Senedd has been the only parliament in the UK without Green representation, but new seat projections from Cardiff University indicate that the Greens could secure at least one seat. Changes to the electoral system, transitioning from the first-past-the-post mechanism to a proportional, closed-list system, alongside an increase in the number of Members of the Senedd (MS) from 60 to 96, provide a hopeful landscape for the Greens. Slaughter acknowledges that while a different voting methodology would have been preferred, the current system offers a ”realistic opening” for the party.

Slaughter himself will run as the leading candidate in Caerdydd Penarth, where they are most optimistic about clinching that coveted seat. He believes that aiming for three seats is a realistic target and emphasizes that the Greens would infuse the Welsh government with a ”truly fresh and radical voice”. In his upcoming speech, he plans to highlight the potential for significant policy changes, such as replacing council tax with a wealth tax on affluent property owners, boosting local services, and nationalizing water to alleviate bills and restore clean waterways.

Reflecting on the recent Caerphilly by-election, where the Greens secured only 1.5% of the vote, Slaughter suggests this underperformance is tied to tactical voting rather than a lack of genuine support. With projections indicating a competitive environment among Plaid Cymru and Reform, he notes that if elected, any Green MSs could wield ”disproportionate influence” given the expected lack of majority for any single party. He is open to collaboration with Plaid while ruling out partnerships with Reform or Conservatives while expressing skepticism regarding Labour’s viability.

Looking to similar experiences in Scotland, where the Green Party collaborated with the SNP, Slaughter remains optimistic about potential cooperative efforts to advance environmental and social progress in Wales.